New South Wales’ newly-appointed head coach has a wealth of options in his spine. Who are his contenders and favourites to land a starting berth?
After two incredibly poor series, season 2024 ushers in a new era for New South Wales rugby league. Out goes Brad Fittler, a man whose efforts and achievements shouldn’t be sneered at. In comes Michael Maguire, a hard-nosed Premiership-winning coach with a wealth of experience and a talented pool of footballers to choose from.
In recent years, Fittler has rewarded club form and combinations, selecting a large chunk of the all-conquering Penrith Panthers side. Yet, results evaded Fittler and the Blues, with their 2022 and 2023 defeats at the hands of Billy Slater’s resurgent Queensland side viewed as one of the greatest coaching failures in modern rugby league.
Extenuating circumstances outside Fittler’s control significantly hindered NSW’s State of Origin prospects. Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell, the Blues’ two best players in their record-breaking 2021 series, missed most if not all of the ensuing two seasons.
Regardless, New South Wales’ team was talented enough to win the series in both years. It proved a fatal flaw in Fittler’s coaching ability that he wasn’t able to get them over the line. As happens in all sports, his cycle coaching the New South Wales Origin side concluded more abruptly than any would have suspected during the early years of his reign.
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In Michael Maguire, the Blues possess a Premiership-winning coach with a wealth of experience. As Origin nears, Maguire will have few certainties for selection in his side. If fit both Nathan Cleary and Payne Haas are locks for the Blues lineup, so too is Brian To’o.
Yet, while the former Rabbitohs coach has selection headaches all across the park, it’s in his spine where the biggest questions will be asked. Answer them correctly and he’ll go a long way to ensuring a Queensland Origin three-peat doesn’t eventuate.
Who should be in NSW’s 2024 State of Origin spine?
FULLBACK
James Tedesco is the incumbent New South Wales fullback and state captain. Since 2018, there have been few Blues who’ve performed as exceptionally as Teddy. In 2023 however, the Sydney Roosters fullback’s performances dipped significantly.
Last year, Tedesco failed to score an Origin try, with his last try in the arena coming in Game Three 2020, registered a sole try assist, made just 46% of his tackles and ran for 60 fewer metres than he did in 2022. Safe to say, it was a lean year for Tedesco, both at club level and for his state.
Frustrations about Tedesco’s running game reached a boiling point in 2023, with critics he ran the ball too often, and with too little threat. He began 2024 with a rebound in form, scoring three tries and laying on another four for his teammates in the opening month of the NRL season. A round five concussion against the Bulldogs opened the door for Joey Manu to play fullback and questions about Tedesco’s form to resurface.
Fortunately for Michael Maguire, he isn’t starved of fullback options. Tom Trbojevic is quietly having a strong season. Not to the level of his 2021 Dally M campaign, he’ll likely never reach those heights again, but after seven rounds, Trbojevic leads fullbacks in try assists (six), runs and offloads. Trbojevic ranks fourth in tries (four) and tackle breaks (30), third in line breaks (five) and second in run metres (1,215).
However, the Manly fullback’s Origin excellence has come on the wing and in the centres. Conventional wisdom would suggest Trbojevic slotting into the latter position in 2024. Leaving the fullback race open to two potential State of Origin debutants: Dylan Edwards and Scott Drinkwater.
Scott Drinkwater possesses a great attacking upside. A player capable of threading the needle with a precise kick or arrowed pass, and snaking his way through defences. No fullback touches the ball more often than Drinkwater, and none have been involved in more tries than the Cowboys man. Yet he is well down the pecking order for Michael Maguire, with the Cowboys’ inconsistency an additional mark against Drinkwater’s name.
Dylan Edwards is the favourite for the jersey. Rightfully so. He’s been a reliable member of the three-peat Penrith Panthers and has a strong playing connection with Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Api Koroisau, both of whom will likely feature for the Blues this year.
On average, Edwards runs for 217 metres per game this season while ranking third among fullbacks for tackle breaks (36), second for try assists (five) and third in tries (four). At the end of Penrith’s unstoppable attacking block shape, Edwards usually delivers the right final pass for his outside men.
Defensively, only Kalyn Ponga can rival Edwards’ positioning and security under the high ball. All roads point to Edwards making his Origin debut this season, and few would argue against it.
Verdict: Dylan Edwards
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FIVE-EIGHTH
Like Tedesco, Jarome Luai has sewn this spot up in recent years. A stellar breakout series in 2021, plus his solid club form and decade-long connection with halfback Nathan Cleary meant he maintained his place in the halves during both 2022 and 2023.
However, a fair amount of petulance on Luai’s part during the 2023 series means public perception of Luai has shifted significantly, to the point his selection for the Blues would receive minimal celebration and major backlash.
To his credit, Luai hasn’t been poor in 2024. He’s done his job, even in Cleary’s absence. However, it’s safe to forecast Luai won’t be involved in this year’s series. Neither will Cody Walker, the Blues five-eighth for Game Three last year.
That opens the door for Nicho Hynes to cement himself as the perfect partner for Cleary. While his attacking statistics haven’t been as extraordinary as in recent years, Hynes’ game is more mature than in recent years. His game management has improved, as has his defence. No halfback has made more tackles than the Sharks man’s 154, while only two sevens have a higher tackle efficiency than his 88%.
A strong argument could be made that alongside Cleary, a game-managing halfback, Hynes’ running game and attacking upside will come to the fore and cause problems for the Queensland defences. His preference for the right edge at the Sharks would clash with Cleary, who also prefers that side of the field. However, Hynes’ history at fullback means he is equally adept on either edge.
Additionally, Hynes’ increased game management has the potential to greatly benefit Cleary, by releasing the burden of playmaking and guiding the team around the park from the shoulders of the Penrith halfback and allowing him to run the footy more frequently, and to greater effect, as was the case in the 2023 Grand Final when Jack Cogger came on late for the Panthers.
A similar argument could be made for Mitch Moses, who’s shown flashes of being an Origin footballer in his limited appearances for his state. However, a foot injury will keep Moses out until at least round 12, meaning his case for Origin will need to be made Game Two or Three, instead of the Series opener.
An outside contender for the NSW five-eighth role is Matt Burton. Previously selected for his state in the centres, Burton has been central to the Bulldogs’ improvement in 2024. His combination on the left edge with Viliame Kikau grows each week, as does his game management. A devastating runner of the football, Burton’s 2024 has been defined by his improved kicking game. Very rarely does the Bulldogs five-eighth opt for the wrong kick. No five-eighth has kicked as many 40/20s (two) or for as many metres (2,252) as Burton this season.
Verdict: Nicho Hynes
HALFBACK
There is no debate here. If he is fit, he’s in.
Verdict: Nathan Cleary
HOOKER
In recent years there has arguably been no more important position in State of Origin than hooker. Queensland’s rotation of Ben Hunt and Harry Grant is one of the greatest one-two punches in rugby league history. Hunt transfers his halfback playmaking and gritty defence into the hooker role, while Grant is injected into the game when legs are tired and defences grow weary.
In recent years, New South Wales has tried to mirror this system. In 2022, after Damien Cook went the distance in Game One, the Souths hooker was brought off the bench for the rest of the series while Api Koroisau started. In Game Three last year, Cook started and debutant Reece Robson came off the bench for the Blues.
Robson didn’t put a foot wrong, with his ability to play lock if necessary an additional benefit of the Cowboys hooker, while Cook is the only NRL hooker capable of matching Grant’s speed and evasiveness.
All this is to say, every New South Wales hooker not named Api Koroisau is competing for the bench utility role, should Maguire choose to head down that selection avenue. The Wests Tigers captain has been the standout hooker of the 2024 NRL season, with his deceptive ballplaying and ruck control paramount to the Tigers’ solid start to the season.
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After years of acting as Cook’s understudy, Koroisau has surpassed his South Sydney compatriot and should rightly be considered the leading option for New South Wales’ hooker role. Whether his role is a starting one, which will require him to sap the early intensity from the game before his magic can thrive, or off the bench, where his playmaking might be maximised greater, remains to be seen.
All that is certain is that a fully fit Koroisau is in NSW’s best Origin team. If Maguire opts for a dual-hooker system and wants a sturdy number nine physically capable of taking the sting out of games early then Reece Robson is his best bet. If he wants pace to burn off the bench, Cook is his best call. Despite the Rabbitohs’ poor 2024, Cook’s shown he is far from the problem.
Verdict: Api Koroisau
