We’re in the thick of it now. The 2023-24 English Premier League season is winding down. At the top of the table, title races have grown clearer. At the bottom, the relegation battle looks certain to be decided in courtrooms and tribunal hearings rather than on football pitches.
Where once the relegation battle seemed a foregone conclusion, twists and turns towards the end of the season, aided by unfortunate points deductions incurred by sides for breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, have dragged five teams into a previous three horse race.
At the time of writing, with all but one side having played 32 league games, the footballing world has clarity on which teams are fighting to avoid the drop, as well as who should already have their bags packed from the Championship.
With a large chunk of the season already behind us, Sheffield United, Burnley, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Everton remain threatened by relegation. Many would have forecast the three sides promoted at the beginning of this season, Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town, to be in the relegation zone come the pointy end of the season.
Such an outcome isn’t uncommon in the English football period. Often, it takes sides multiple promotions from the Championship to nail the formula for Premier League survival. Just ask Fulham and Norwich City, two recent prominent yo-yo clubs.
As we approach the final act of the season, here’s a breakdown of the Premier League’s relegation battle.
The 2023-24 Premier League relegation battle
At the time of writing, the bottom of the Premier League ladder looks like this:
16th: Everton, 27 points* (eight points deducted for PSR breaches)
17th: Nottingham Forest, 26 points* (four points deducted for PSR breaches)
18th: Luton Town, 25 points
19th: Burnley, 20 points
20th: Sheffield United, 16 points
How likely are each side’s survival chances?
Everton
Just two points above the relegation zone, Everton yet again find themselves nervously near the Premier League drop zone. Throughout the campaign, they’ve shown promising signs, largely down to their rock-solid defence, a hallmark of manager Sean Dyche’s tactics.
However, a barren run has seen the Toffees win just once in the league since December 23. Those 15 matches have seen the side conceded 28 of their 48 goals this season, including six against Chelsea in mid-April. Points deductions haven’t helped their league position. Without the eight points stripped from them for breaching the Premier League’s PSR, Everton would be 14th and relatively safe from relegation.
Half of Everton’s final six games come against fellow relegation stragglers Nottingham Forest, Luton and Sheffield United, meaning a return to their mid-season form could separate them from the pack and guarantee their Premier League status next season. Their prospects will also be aided by any successful appeal against their second points deduction.
How likely is survival? Should be safe, but their form is concerning
Nottingham Forest
Another side inhibited by points deductions, Forest’s 2023-24 season has been indifferent. Midway through the campaign, the club opted to part with the beloved Steve Cooper, replacing him with the pragmatic Nuno Espirito Santo. Under Nuno, they’ve beaten both Newcastle and Manchester United but failed to get the three points in practically every other game.
Even with the four points taken from them for breaching the Premier League’s PSR, Forest’s league position would remain unchanged. A bloated squad is more of a hindrance than a help to Nuno, although it contains a few talented elements capable of guaranteeing their Premier League survival.
Forest’s appeal against their points deduction is set to occur on 22 April, though the outcome won’t be decided on that day. A positive result would gift Forest some breathing space at the foot of the table as they prepare for a run home that includes clashes against Everton, Sheffield United and Burnley.
How likely is survival? Only a significant slip up could send Forest down now
Luton Town
Arguably the biggest surprise package at the start of the Premier League season, Luton Town’s football has been both effective and beautiful. At the heart of their survival campaign is Ross Barkley, reinvented in a deeper midfield role under Rob Edwards. Luton’s attack revolves around Barkley’s composure in possession and exceptional creative instincts.
It may not be a miracle they’re not rooted to the bottom of the table, as many would have predicted at the beginning of the season, but it’s certainly close to one. Few sides have entered the Premier League as underresourced as Luton Town. And yet, they continually punch above their weight.
Their form has been poor since the beginning of February, but a relatively favourable run to end the campaign – Brentford, Wolves, Everton, West Ham and Fulham – could see the Hatters remain in the top flight for another season.
How likely is survival? I wouldn’t rule it out
Burnley
It took them a while but finally, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley realised you can play like Barcelona in the Championship, but in the Premier League, you must remember you are Burnley. Attempts to press high and play through teams yielded few results. After 20 games, Burnley had won three times and drawn twice.
Since the beginning of March, their fortunes have turned. Four draws and a win in their last six matches places the Clarets somewhere few expected them to be; with a faint chance of survival. They face Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest in the run home, both of which could provide necessary points to Kompany’s side.
However, their remaining games of the season are against Manchester United, Newcastle and Spurs, teams fighting for either pride or European football. As disappointing as it may sound, the current six-point gap between Burnley and safety seems too large a divide for the Clarets to cross.
How likely is survival? Improbable but not impossible, yet
Sheffield United
2023-24 will be a season to forget for Sheffield United. When it’s all said and done, this iteration of Sheffield United will be remembered as the worst defensive team in the league’s history. After 32 games, they’ve conceded 84 goals. Just shy of three per game. This has included letting in eight against Newcastle, six against Arsenal, five against Brighton, Villa, Burnley and Arsenal and three on six separate occasions.
Not even the return of Chris Wilder, who led the Blades to a top-half finish back in 2019-20, could plug the many holes sinking the ship. Week after week, Sheffield United’s defence leaked and leaked, and leaked as if they had contractual bonuses for conceding goals as opposed to scoring them.
We’ve seen some great relegation escapes throughout Premier League history. Unfortunately for Sheffield United, who look as off the pace as a horse racing an F1 car, it appears their future is destined for a return to the Championship.
How likely is survival? Minimal at best
