The 2022 NRL finals series is so stacked, this could finally be the year we see a champion crowned from outside the top-four in the NRL era.
The NRL regular season is complete, the ladder is set, and a blockbuster first week of finals is upon us.
Top-four occupiers Penrith, Cronulla, North Queensland and Parramatta have earned the opportunity to battle for a week-off, which is a desirable advantage over those that don’t. 70% of NRL Premiers have come from those that rest in week 2, dating back to the NRL’s inception in 1998.
And as this stat conversely indicates, 30% were made to earn their silverware the hard way by playing four consecutive weeks of finals footy. But no team has come from outside the top-four – illustrating that history is firmly against the Storm, Roosters, Rabbitohs and Raiders this season, who sit fifth to eighth as the finals commences.
While winning the Premiership from their current positions is of obvious difficulty, making the Grand Final is a little easier. Eight teams from outside the top four have made the Grand Final in 24 seasons of NRL competition – a strike rate of one every three seasons.
The large majority of that sample were disposed of and out-classed, as the average winning margin of 17 points would suggest. But that’s not to say some haven’t had a good crack.
The 1998 Bulldogs gave it a whirl in the inaugural NRL season after they finished ninth, yes, ninth – now let us never speak of the Top 10 ever again. Their famous Preliminary Final win over Parramatta spurred them to a spirited first half showing in the Grand Final and a shock 12-10 halftime lead, before an avalanche of points from Wayne Bennett’s star-studded Brisbane Broncos put them in their place.
The very next year the newly formed St George-Illawarra Dragons should have put this whole thing to bed before it even awoke, but they choked, and allowed Melbourne to dine out on their own slice of history instead. Placed sixth heading into the finals – but only one win off third – the Dragons dominated the Storm, Roosters and Minor Premier Sharks on route to the Grand Final. They then held a 14-nil halftime lead over the Storm outfit they lapped just three weeks earlier, but let it slip via a string of ill-disciplined plays; that Jamie Ainscough head-high penalty try finishing the job.
We have experienced some respectable tussles since, but the final result has all but been decided heading into the final stages of the match.
So what separates teams five to eight in 2022 from those that have gone before? It all comes down to big game experience and form.
Well, in positions five and six sit two giants of modern day rugby league, who share four of the past five titles between them.
The Storm have endured a horrid run of injuries in 2022, so to finish just one win out of the top-four is a colossal feat in itself. Their slow start against the Eels last week was likely due to a six-day turnaround following their bruising encounter against the Roosters, and is their only poor half of footy in the past six weeks. Craig Bellamy still has eight uninjured Premiership winners at his disposal and has won championships in just about every way possible. If he can overcome this adversity to become the first coach from outside the top-four to win the comp, it will place the proverbial cherry on top of his famed coaching career.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Roosters have charged into the finals on the back of eight consecutive wins and do not look like slowing down. To claim the 2022 Premiership, they will need to win 12 on the trot, a streak which has only been achieved under Trent Robinson’s reign once before. But who would be willing to bet against a side that still boasts eleven title winners with the addition of future rep stars Joseph Suaali, Sam Walker and seasoned prop Matt Lodge?
In seventh and eighth are two sides with plenty of unfinished business after they both narrowly lost a Grand Final in recent years.
The majority of South Sydney’s side who lost to Penrith last year are still present at Redfern and champing at the bit to make amends; as too is two-time Premiership winner Latrell Mitchell, whose absence from their 2021 finals campaign likely cost them the title. He transforms this Rabbitohs side from also-rans to contenders, which was never more evident than in recent weeks..
Canberra’s slow start to the season forced them to play sudden death footy over the past month and their form and confidence has grown with every win – as their 104 points scored over the past fortnight indicates. They still have eight troops on deck from their controversial 2019 Grand Final defeat, who would all love to atone for their misfortunes and set the record straight. Coach Ricky Stuart has an imposing 67% win percentage in finals, which is greater than Craig Bellamy, Wayne Bennett and a remarkable improvement of 17% on his regular season record. He knows how to light a fire in the belly of his troops in September, which makes the prospect of winning his second Premiership as a coach – exactly 20-years after his first – not as unlikely a proposition as first thought.
In contrast, if you take the reigning Premiers out of the equation, the remaining sides in the top-four have underwhelming player numbers with Grand Final experience and unconvincing form lines compared to those beneath them.
The Sharks have five in their squad, with only two survivors from the famous 2016 title. Their incredibly soft run home means they haven’t battled a top-eight side in six weeks.
The Cowboys stack up ok with six, but have recorded just one victory over a fellow top-eight side since May – which was against the severely undermanned Panthers last week who rested 13 first-graders.
While the Eels have just two and continue to be the biggest enigma in NRL history. On their day they will beat anyone, anywhere, but if they’re slightly off their game – they are anyones for the taking.
When you take into account that only one in three NRL Premiers have had less experience than their Grand Final rivals – it demonstrates just how important this factor can be.
If a team outside the top-four is to conquer history and claim an NRL title, they’ll have to defeat four quality sides and potentially the dominant Panthers in the process.
It won’t be easy, but if it was ever going to happen, this is the year.
