STATE OF PLAY: The representative period is in the rear view and really only 10 clubs can be taken seriously as the 2022 NRL Finals sneak up. Let’s assess the current state of play and take a brief look at why each contender can, or cannot win the Premiership.
Panthers
Currently – 1st // Predicted – 1st
Run Home – Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Panthers (A), Warriors (H), Cowboys (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – None
Why?
At this stage it is tough to see any side toppling the most dominant team of the modern era. Their 88.2% win rate since the beginning of the 2020 season is mind-blowing, they have a clean bill of health and the opportunity to validate their credentials through back-to-back titles will be a massive motivator.
Why Not?
A major factor for Penrith’s success in recent seasons has been their lack of long-term injuries to key players – with 2022 being no different. The only way their season could possibly be derailed at this point is through the omission of their main men.
Embed from Getty ImagesCowboys
Currently – 2nd // Predicted – 4th
Run Home – Tigers (H), Dragons (A), Bulldogs (A), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Rabbitohs (A), Panthers H
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Reuben Cotter round 20, Jordan McLean round 24, Helium Luki season
Why?
Defence wins Premierships and the Cowboys are currently ranked second for fewest points conceded this season. Since 2006 the NRL Champions have been ranked within the top three in this statistic every year except one (coincidentally the 2015 Cowboys), which bodes well for Todd Payten’s men.
Why not?
They have surprised all and sundry in 2022 considering they were tipped by many to finish towards the bottom of the ladder. Despite this they are still relatively inexperienced when competing as a unit and are yet to prove themselves at the business end of the season, having not even gone close to sniffing a finals berth since 2017.
Sharks
Currently – 3rd // Predicted – 2nd
Run Home – Panthers (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (H), Tigers (A), Sea Eagles (A), Bulldogs (H), Knights (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Sione Katoa season
Why?
They have a beautifully balanced squad playing an expansive brand of footy under rookie coach Craig Fitzgibbon. In attack their middles bend the line with ease which allows time for Nicho Hynes and Matt Moylan to unleash their explosive edges and three-quarter line, but it is their third-ranked defence which has regularly set the tone and afforded them the opportunity to play on the front foot throughout 2022. They seem to be peaking at the right time and will be tough to beat.
Why Not?
A mid-season lapse is a minor cause of concern for Sharks fans and they will be hoping it does not happen again.
Embed from Getty ImagesStorm
Currently – 4th // Predicted – 5th
Run Home – Rabbitohs (A), Warriors (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Broncos (A), Roosters (H), Eels (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Brandon Smith round 21, Xavier Coates round 22, Ryan Papenhuyzen season, Reimis Smith season, Christian Welch season
Why?
They are Craig Bellamy’s Melbourne Storm.
Why Not?
The loss of 2020 Clive Churchill Medalist Ryan Papenhuyzen for the season is a crucial one. No side in the NRL era has lost their first choice fullback to injury and won the Premiership.
Broncos
Currently – 5th // Predicted – 3rd
Run Home – Eels (A), Tigers (H), Roosters (A), Knights (H), Storm (H), Eels (H), Dragons (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Albert Kelly round 21, Selwyn Cobbo TBC, Herbie Farnworth indefinite, Te Maire Martin indefinite
Why?
It is no coincidence that Brisbane’s improvement from Kevin Walter’s first year as coach to second aligns with the signing of Adam Reynolds. He has brought direction and belief to a young, athletic and extremely talented squad. Winning competitions is in their DNA.
Why Not?
Across the board they have little finals experience which could work against them in big games. They will need Adam Reynolds to stay upright, or it’s game over.
Embed from Getty ImagesEels
Currently – 6th // Predicted – 6th
Run Home – Broncos (H), Panthers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Rabbitohs (H), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Storm (H)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Ray Stone season
Why?
Their best footy is premiership winning footy. Their ability to hand Penrith two of their miserly seven losses since 2020 are a testament to that.
Why Not?
They are potentially the most enigmatic team in NRL history and have an incredible penchant to completely switch off for periods during matches and for weeks at a time.
Rabbitohs
Currently – 7th // Predicted – 8th
Run Home – Storm (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Eels (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (H), Roosters (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Campbell Graham indefinite, Jacob Host Season
Why?
Latrell Mitchell – if he played finals last year the Bunnies could very well be defending Premiers. He is a game changer and winner.
Why Not?
A rookie number seven and a lack of depth out wide. Also a difficult run home might prevent them from playing finals altogether.
Embed from Getty ImagesSea Eagles
Currently – 8th // Predicted – 10th
Run Home – Dragons (A), Roosters (H), Eels (H), Titans (A), Sharks (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Jake Trbojevic round 20, Lachlan Croker round 20, Tom Trbojevic season
Why?
It might have been 11 years ago but Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran are one of only three active Premiership winning halves combinations in the competition. If they receive enough support Manly have a chance of making a run.
Why Not?
No Tom Trbojevic, a lack of depth in key positions, and an aptitude to leak points in a real hurry.
Embed from Getty ImagesRoosters
Currently – 9th // Predicted – 7th
Run Home – Knights (A), Sea Eagles (A), Broncos (H), Cowboys (H), Tigers (H), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Lindsay Collins round 20, Joey Manu TBC, Siosiua Taukeiaho TBC, Sitili Tupouniua season
Why?
Eleven of their strongest 17 have Premiership rings and the large majority are still in their prime. If Trent Robinson can get the chemistry just right they have every chance of adding more bling to their collection.
Why Not?
Their form has been incredibly inconsistent with patches of brilliance mixed with mediocrity. If they don’t arrest this pattern they might not even play finals footy let alone win the competition.
Raiders
Currently – 10th // Predicted – 9th
Run Home – Warriors (H), Titans (A), Panthers (H), Dragons (H), Knights (A), Sea Eagles (H), Tigers (A)
Notable Injuries/Suspensions – Jordan Rapana round 21, Jarrod Croker season, Josh Hodgson season
Why?
They are a ‘confidence side’ brimming with talent who can compete with anyone on their day. A relatively easy run home has given them an opportunity to play finals, if they are good enough. With a wealth of big game experience still in their squad, they could win some finals if they get in.
Why Not?
It all depends on which Raiders side turns up to play. Inconsistency has crippled them in recent years and the ‘Faiders’ tag has returned to haunt them once again in 2022.
This season might look like a one-horse race but it would be wise to remember the old adage “a week is a long time in rugby league”. Anything can happen, at any time, such is the volatile and often unpredictable nature of this great game. With that in mind, the run home will certainly throw some curveballs our way.
