Is there a ceiling to how far an outstanding forward pack get an NRL side? If there is, the 2024 Canberra Raiders are about to find out.
There’s a saying in rugby league circles that dates back as long as the game itself: The forwards decide who wins, the backs decide how much.
It rings true, even in the modern game. Without a reliable, strong forward pack, there is nowhere for the backs to work their magic. It’s why, in 2023, the seven sides to run for the most metres finished in the top eight. It’s why, in 2023, the top two sides for metres gained – Penrith and Brisbane – contested the NRL Grand Final against one another.
Without Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, Adam Reynolds’ playmaking and Reece Walsh’s magic cannot shine. Without Moses Leota and James Fisher-Harris, Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai cannot thrive.
But just how far can a forward pack get you in the NRL? The 2024 Canberra Raiders are about to provide us a ‘once and for all’ answer on just that.
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How far can Canberra’s forward pack get them in the 2024 NRL season?
Round one, 2024. Canberra travelled to Newcastle, taking on the Knights in front of a sellout McDonald Jones Stadium. On paper, no one gave the Raiders anything more than a slim chance of victory.
The last time these sides met, in the 2023 NRL Finals, it ended in a nail-biting Newcastle victory that went beyond the 80 minutes. Since then, Canberra has lost Jack Wighton and Jarrod Croker, the club’s two biggest leaders and their two most capable game-breakers. Guys who, on their day, took it to their opponents and were key to generating points.
In essence, they were the backs who decided how much Canberra won by.
Without them, Ricky’s Raiders need to find new ways to win. Against the Knights, that was through grinding their opponents down to dust; a style of play led by their forward pack.
On paper, the Raiders big boppers, excluding hookers, only outran Newcastle by 32 metres, hardly a considerable margin. Remember though, this is a Canberra forward pack without Corey Horsburgh, arguably their pack leader in 2023. And on top of his absence, Hudson Young was also sent to the sin bin.
It wasn’t what Canberra’s forward pack did, but how they did it. Every set, without fail, regardless of what stage the game was at, Canberra’s pack stepped up, charging at the Newcastle defence as if it were their first hit up of the game, fighting for every inch possible to give their side every chance of victory.
No one epitomised Canberra’s determination and grit more than English recruit, Morgan Smithies. In 68 minutes, the former Wigan Warrior took 14 runs for 108 metres, without registering a single tackle break or line break, all while making 46 tackles, the most of anyone in lime green.
If that’s not a Ricky Stuart forward’s performance, I don’t know what is. Smithies wasn’t alone. All of Canberra’s usual suspects – Joseph Tapine, Josh Papali’i and Hudson Young – stood up and stood out. Their bench unit; Ata Mariota, Pasami Saulo and Emre Guler, also hugely influenced the game, running for 218 metres in a combined total of 78 minutes.
By comparison, Newcastle’s bench forwards chipped in for 15 fewer metres in 30 more combined minutes.
This isn’t to suggest Canberra’s forward pack are the sole generators of their momentum. As is common in modern rugby league, the Raiders back line put in a shift. All contributed over 100 running metres, setting up their sets well more often than not.
But it all stems from the forward pack. If they allowed the Knights’ pack, or any other side for that matter, to wrestle their way back into the game for just a few sets, it would disrupt Canberra’s flow and limit their chance of victory.
Newcastle coach Adam O’Brien addressed Canberra’s bash and grind approach in his round one post-match press conference.
“They [Canberra] wanted to come here and get into a scrap, and I don’t reckon we did, and we got a lesson in what wins the first month of footy,” he said.
That grinding DNA is a core element of Ricky Stuart’s Canberra Raiders. It’s why even when they seem down, they’re never out.
“It was a real grinding effort that Sticky [Stuart] loves and that’s what made us proud,” hooker Danny Levi explained.
This isn’t to suggest Canberra’s forward pack is unremarkable, only capable of grinding their way through sides. They’re not.
Hudson Young has as much flair as any backrower in the competition, Joseph Tapine is the prototypical modern forward and the rest of the pack can punish you in their own way. But they never hide from the hard stuff; the tough carries, the tired tackles, the one-percenters.
Nothing exemplifies this attitude more than a play in the 60th minute of Canberra’s round one clash against Newcastle. At this point, Canberra was up by eight points, and Jamal Fogarty, kicking 45 metres out from his line, sends a ball bouncing into Newcastle’s in-goal.
It’s not a poor kick, but hardly a remarkable one. What is remarkable is Canberra’s kick chase, led by hooker Tom Starling. Starling meets an onrushing Greg Marzhew, connects well and begins driving the winger, with the support of Papali’i and Young, into the Newcastle in-goal for a drop out.
Canberra doesn’t score off that next set, instead giving the ball to Newcastle one metre out from their try line. A huge defensive set, which involves multiple tackles from Young, Papali’i, Smithies and Tapine, sees Newcastle travel 23 metres.
In the next set, Canberra score and 14-6 becomes 18-6. From one burst of effort from Canberra’s forward pack, momentum turns in their favour and victory becomes more secure.
These grinding efforts will be more important than ever before in 2024, a season the Raiders will be without Wighton and Croker, or even Josh Hodgson and John Bateman, guys with bucketloads of flair who were crucial elements of the team’s run to the 2019 NRL Grand Final.
Without these guys, Canberra’s forward pack needs to keep them in games, keep them in good field position and keep their opposition as far from their in-goal as possible. Without these guys, Canberra’s forward pack must put them in positions to win games.
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It needs to put Matt Timoko and Seb Kris in position to strike. It needs to put Jamal Fogarty in positions to kick them into games they’d otherwise be out of, as he did against Newcastle when his 800 kick metres wrangled back control and inspired Canberra’s victory.
No one expects Canberra to do anything in 2024. That’s just how they like it. Ricky Stuart’s men thrive off a siege mentality. Yet, if they are to have any chance of doing anything it will be their forward pack, not their backs, determining how far they go.
