In just five years, Brian To’o has completely changed the way NRL wingers operate.
Every so often in world sport, an athlete arrives on the scene with a skillset so extraordinary and game-changing that it alters the fabric of their chosen field.
Steph Curry shot the ball better than anyone from beyond the three-point arc, led the Golden State Warriors to immense success in the 2010s, and now three-point shooting is a prerequisite of modern basketball.
Lionel Messi, diminutive, quick, and technically superior to any footballer ever, revolutionised how forwards play; first as a false nine, floating between the lines and slipping off opposing centre backs, as had been the modus operandi of centre forwards in the entirety of footballing history prior to the early 2010s.
Then, as a winger, alongside Cristiano Ronaldo, Messi changed what it meant to play out wide for a football side — width became an afterthought. Cutting inside, finding and exploiting pockets of space and rippling the back of the net became not just their prerogative, but the prerogative of every winger since.
In rugby league, the emergence of a six-foot, 97-kilogram winger from Mount Druitt in Sydney’s West has completely revolutionised how wingers play the game. Brian To’o, who debuted a little over five years ago, is now 100 games into his NRL career.
Relatively short, squats 200 kilos, thighs like tree trunks, graceful hair flowing behind him, To’o was hardly the ideal winger when he debuted. At that time, wingers were either tall and powerful or cheetah-quick and capable of acrobatic finishes with their eyes close. Somehow, someway, To’o perfectly married both profiles.
Since the Penrith winger’s debut, largely due to his consistent excellence, we’ve seen wingers morph from luxurious finishers sitting on the end of polished block plays to arguably the most pivotal player on a rugby league field, an additional forward who relieves pressure off their middle men through constant tough carries from their own end.
Pre-Brian To’o wingers were a luxury. Now, they’re a necessity.
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How Brian To’o redefined what it means to be a winger
Right off the bat, let’s crunch some numbers. Who doesn’t love crunching numbers? Sporting statisticians do. Your high school mathematics teacher does. And, when needing evidence to support my arguments, so do I.
Brian To’o made his NRL debut 1,803 days ago in Round 10 of the 2019 season. In years, that’s just shy of five years since rugby league got its first taste of Brian To’o. Penrith would lose that game 30-10 to the New Zealand Warriors. It would be their sixth consecutive loss. Over the following 14 games, the Panthers would win nine games, jump from 15th to 10th in the ladder and flirt with finals football.
Fast forward to Round 8 of the 2024 season. To’o chalked up his 100th game, scored his 69th try, broke an unprecedented 21 tackles, and ran for 227 metres. For some, that’s a career game. For To’o, it’s just another one.
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So much has changed in the 1,803 days between To’o’s debut and his centenary game. Rugby league is quicker, the rules altered to banish the wrestle and inspire a faster game, notably around the ruck. And wingers are no longer solely viewed as finishers waiting for the final pass. They’re additional forwards, tasked with beginning a team’s sets on the front foot and relieving their forwards of first and second tackle hit ups, allowing them to reserve energy for carries later in the set.
The first change to rugby league came about because of refreshed rules. The second change was by and large born from Brian To’o’s excellence. In To’o’s first full season, 2020, the Panthers took the competition by the scruff of the neck, sweeping all before them on the way to the Grand Final, where they were downed by a Cameron Smith-inspired Melbourne Storm.
Over the next four seasons, including this current campaign, the winger has claimed three consecutive Premierships, represented New South Wales and arguably been their most consistent performer, was part of a Samoan side that made the 2022 Rugby League World Cup Final, a tournament he led in run metres and post contact metres.
In those four campaigns, To’o ranked 15th, first, third and fourth in average running metres. Penrith’s diminutive winger has been so brilliant that he’s completely altered what teams look for in wingers.
Over the course of his debut round, 32 starting wingers took to an NRL field. At this time in rugby league history, wingers were primarily finishers. On average, the 32 wingers in To’o’s debut round took 13.5 runs and ran for 115 metres. Respectable figures without being remarkable. 12 of those 32 players ran for less than 100 metres, none ran for more than 200.
On the weekend of his 100th game, five years on, 32 wingers also took to an NRL field. As a result, on average, Round 8 of the 2024 season saw wingers take 15 runs per game for 146 metres. Just four wingers ran for less than 100 metres, with four running for over 200 metres.
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The role shift is clear as day. In the To’o era, wingers are running more often and for more metres. In fact, Canterbury’s Jayden Okunbor, whose 182 metres was the most amongst wingers back in To’o’s debut weekend, would’ve only run for the eighth-most metres amongst wingers across Round 8, 2024 — the weekend of To’o’s hundredth NRL game.
Brian To’o’s lasting impact on rugby league won’t lie in the trophies he wins and tries he scored, but instead how he’s overhauled the winger position. Finishing tries make every highlights package, but it’s only a part of the snapshot of what great NRL wingers are now judged on.
Tries remain important, of course. But being able to take tough carries out of your defensive end, time-and-time again, utilising speed, agility, power and persistence to bend defensive lines, for the full 80 minutes mind you, is now what wingers are judged on. It’s the carries and creation of quick play the balls, wearing out opposition defenders, that inspire teammates.
Those actions have a far greater contribution to a team’s on-field success than simply being on the end of the final pass. How many wingers, in rugby league, can say they carved out a lasting legacy?
